Roseville, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
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NWS Forecast for Roseville MN
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Roseville MN
Issued by: National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen, MN |
Updated: 2:07 am CDT Aug 15, 2025 |
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Overnight
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday
 Slight Chance Showers then Slight Chance T-storms
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Friday Night
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
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Saturday
 Chance T-storms
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Saturday Night
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday
 Chance T-storms
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Sunday Night
 T-storms Likely then Showers Likely
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Monday
 Chance Showers then Chance T-storms
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Monday Night
 Slight Chance T-storms
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Lo 69 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 70 °F |
Hi 83 °F |
Lo 67 °F |
Hi 77 °F |
Lo 67 °F |
Hi 81 °F |
Lo 65 °F |
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind around 10 mph. |
Friday
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A slight chance of showers before 8am, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 97. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. |
Friday Night
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. South wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. East wind around 5 mph becoming west southwest in the morning. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday Night
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A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East northeast wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. |
Sunday
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A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 10am, then a chance of showers between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Sunday Night
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Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely between 7pm and 10pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Monday
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A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. |
Monday Night
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A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. |
Tuesday
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Partly sunny, with a high near 79. North northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Tuesday Night
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Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. North northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. |
Wednesday
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Sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind around 5 mph. |
Wednesday Night
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Mostly clear, with a low around 64. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. |
Thursday
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Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Roseville MN.
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Weather Forecast Discussion
804
FXUS63 KMPX 150403
AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1103 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Multiple chances for thunderstorms & showers through early next
week.
- Primary concern will be heavy rainfall, but a severe threat
will be possible during this period.
- A trend to a drier, cooler pattern setting in by the middle of
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Areas of isolated showers have developed over the last few hours.
These are primarily light & have often been virga, but there is more
meaningful rain to fall over the next several days. Temperatures
have been slow to warm up today with broken to overcast clouds
overhead. High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s for most
of us. A better chance for isolated showers to move through this
evening from W MN into W WI. There is a marginal risk for hail, but
there is a remnant MCV that may provide a local enhancement to the
shear profile, which could lead to a locally higher threat of a
strong/severe storm across portions of southwestern Minnesota this
evening. A brief dry stretch will occur overnight before another
round of isolated showers early Friday morning.
On Friday, there will be an increasing chance for rain over the
afternoon and into the evening hours, but most should stay dry
during business hours. The most notable change will be the increase
in moisture & humidity. How bad will it be? Our forecast has surface
dew points increasing into the lower 70s Friday afternoon. Add in
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s & it`ll be a warm one! Our
attention will turn to the "main event" of this forecast period
Friday night through Monday morning. The influx of moisture & a
parade of shortwaves will fuel the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
and showers between Friday night & Monday morning.
Friday evening through Saturday morning will be the first round of
convection. A mid-level jet streak on top of the northern edge of
the ridge will provide broad ascent across the Upper Midwest. The
kicker will arrive in the form of a weak mid-level shortwave trough
that`ll be embedded within the jet. The significant influx of
moisture will allow strong instability to pool along & south of the
frontal boundary. This shortwave should kick start convection Friday
evening across portions of Minnesota, where a Marginal risk (1 of 5)
is in place. Recent trends in guidance support convection congealing
into an MCS as it moves into Wisconsin - increasing the potential
for damaging winds in the process. The SPC introduced a Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) over western & central Wisconsin for the increased
wind threat with an MCS. The latest HRRR would suggest a northern
Wisconsin would experience the round of severe late Friday while an
MCS moves through MN into W WI Saturday morning... There is a lot of
uncertainty on what exactly unfolds but there is a decent signal for
severe given the large amounts of CAPE & adequate bulk shear. The
heavy rainfall threat will begin to increase in addition to the
severe threat. Heavy rain will be a bigger concern the later we get
into the weekend. Friday night - Saturday AM looks like things
should move, but given high PW values of 1.75" to 2.0", any
convection will likely be able to produce efficient rainfall while
having a plenty of additional "fuel".
Saturday should dry out during the late morning thru mid afternoon
hours for most folks. There is likely to be some isolated showery-
storm garbage somewhere given the stationary boundary directly
overhead. Another round of convection will be triggered by a less
impressive shortwave Saturday night. This will likely be more of a
heavy rain threat than severe - but SPC day 3 has a Marginal Risk.
There is uncertainty today on where storms will track over the next
three days, it wouldn`t surprise me if at some point there will be a
need for a flash flood watch once forecast confidence increases to a
point where we can identify an area of concern. Sunday will will be
similar to Saturday with a chance of scattered thunderstorms
throughout the day but a better signal for sustained showers &
storms overnight into Monday morning. To me this is the best chance
for heavy rain & potential flash flooding as things stand as of 3PM
Thursday afternoon. There is a better defined wave that`ll move
through and push out the boundary by Monday afternoon. Given the
long duration w/multiple rounds of storms/showers - there could be
several areas that receive 1 to 3" by Monday morning with locally
higher amounts of 3 to 5" not out of the realm of possibility.
Looking past Monday, there is a signal that we`ll a drier & cooler
(or less humid) pattern will take hold by the middle of next
week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025
Small area of -TSRA will impact KMSP, and could hold on for
KRNH, but it should miss the rest of the TAF sites. Could see
some storms across northern MN sag south and impact KAXN.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Did add a prob30 for -TSRA
Friday afternoon, and there is some indication that we could
have another round of storms early Saturday morning.
KMSP...
A small area of thunderstorms should be past KMSP by the start
of the TAF period. Then expect VFR conditions. Could see
additional storms Friday evening, and again early Saturday
morning. For now, just added a Prob30 for Friday evening, and
held off on a mention in the TAFs for early Saturday.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA early. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind shifting from S to W to
N, around 10kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...BPH/JRB
AVIATION...JRB
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